Home
Our Services
Who We Are
News & Ideas
Financial Briefs
Featured News
Articles Of Interest
Market Data Bank
ClientVault
Account Lookup
Resources
Blog
Local Partners
Client Forms
Event Calendar
Portal Login
Alliance Links
Contact Us
Tell A Friend
Disclosure
Video Blog
Pic Rotator
Log In

News & Ideas


Printer Friendly Version
Index
Federal Reserve Projects Strong Growth
The Best People Were Wrong 
This Week’s Investment News In Six Charts
U.S. Investor Picture Of The Week
The Conference Board Backs Off Its Recession Forecast
Softening Economic Data, Inflation Fears Dampen Stock Rally
S&P 500 Closes Above 5000 For The First Time Ever
Why America Is The World’s Economic Leader
Investment News For The Week Ended Friday, January 26
Why Stocks Broke The All-Time Record High
A Strategic Update, With Stocks Near All-Time High And Crises Unfolding
2024 Begins With Positive Economic News
How 2023 Will Be Remembered In Financial History
A Good Week For The Economy And Investors 
Earnings Estimates Imply A Bullish Path For Stocks
New Jobs Data Bolsters Hopes For 2024 Economy
 

Amid Stock Market Turmoil, +2.3% Growth Projected In 2022

5028 2

The headlines are ugly. “Late Rally Lifts Stocks After S&P 500 Skims Bear Market,” according to WSJ.com’s top story after Wall Street closed today. “Markets End Down for 7th Straight Week, Despite Late Rally,” according to NYT.com.

Stocks are at the edge of a bear market – defined as a loss of -20% from the last record-high closing price of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index (on Jan. 3). Not since 2001, The Wall Street Journal says, has the S&P 500 suffered a seven-week losing streak.

However, the economy is expected to grow +2.3% in 2022. That’s the forecast from The Conference Board, which designed the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for the U.S. decades ago and gathers data on its 10 sub-components every month.

5028 3

The LEI for the U.S. decreased in April, which obviously is not good news, but the dip followed two consecutive months of gains. Yes, the US LEI was essentially flat in recent months, but it is in line with a moderate growth outlook in the near-term, according to the economics team at The Conference Board, an association for the nation’s largest companies and an institution unique to America’s laissez-faire economy.

“A range of downside risks—including inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and pandemic-related shutdowns, particularly in China—continue to weigh on the outlook,” according to Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Nevertheless, we project the US economy should resume expanding in Q2 following Q1’s contraction in real GDP. Despite downgrades to previous forecasts, The Conference Board still projects +2.3% year-over-year US GDP growth in 2022.”

Risk of a recession has risen, and the weaknesses among the components of the 10 leading indicators outweighed the strengths in April, according to the Conference Board. However, moderate growth is likely to prevail in the near-term. The decline in the LEI was primarily driven by weak consumer expectations and a drop in housing permits. In the six-month period ended April 2022, the LEI increased nine-tenths of 1%, equivalent to about a 1.9% annualized rate. That’s half its +3.8% rate of growth over the previous six-month period, and equivalent to about +7.7% annualized growth.

The LEI plunged before every recession in modern history except for the Covid recession, and a bear market in stocks has been triggered by every recession in modern history except for the crash of 1987. That’s why the LEI an important forward-looking indicator of financial economics.

The LEI is a broad indicator of what’s ahead, reflecting recent financial news because it is comprised of 10 components:

  1. average weekly hours worked in manufacturing
  2. average weekly initial unemployment claims
  3. manufacturers’ new orders – consumer goods and materials
  4. Institute of Supply Management index of new orders index
  5. manufacturing sector new orders, nondefense capital goods
  6. building permits – new private housing units
  7. stock prices, as measured by the S&P 500
  8. Leading Credit Index™
  9. interest rate spread of the 10-year Treasury Bond minus the Fed Funds Rate
  10. index of consumer expectations.

5028 4

The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed this Friday at 3,901.36. The index gained +0.57% from Thursday and is down -3.1% from last week. The index is up +54.2% from the March 23, 2020, bear market low and down about -19% from the January 3rd all-time closing high. Sticking with a long-term plan can be hard in moments like this. We are here to help.

Nothing contained herein is to be considered a solicitation, research material, an investment recommendation, or advice of any kind, and it is subject to change without notice. Any investments or strategies referenced herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Product suitability must be independently determined for each individual investor. Tax advice always depends on your particular personal situation and preferences. You should consult the appropriate financial professional regarding your specific circumstances.
The material represents an assessment of financial, economic and tax law at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete, and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions.
This article was written by a professional financial journalist for Advisor Products and is not intended as legal or investment advice.


Email this article to a friend


This article was written by a professional financial journalist for LifePlan and is not intended as legal or investment advice.

©2024 Advisor Products Inc. All Rights Reserved.